Monday, September 28, 2009

Northwest preview

Finally getting around my preview of the Northwest. Thanks for hanging out until it came down. The Northwest is not far removed from being a power-house, but now it seems that is reserved for the Central.

Vancouver: The Canucks finished first in the division last year and I can't find any reason to think the Calgary, the only other team to challenge in the Northwest, have improved enough to displace them. It's hard to bet against a team that has Roberto Luongo between the pipes. There are good goaltenders that can keep you in games, then are are goaltenders that can steal games for you. With Luongo, you get the latter. The Sedin twins can go up against any top line in the league and hold their own. It's almost unfair really: I am married to a twin and there's a sort of a mental link between them that resembles a symbiotic psychosis. It's like that creepy La Quinta commercial: they're two halves of the same brain. The offense will revolve around the Sedins, but Kesler and Raymond should be sufficient in providing the secondary scoring needed to keep the team nestled at the top of the division. Vancouver is much improved on the blue-line after an active offseason. Vancouver finally has a true power play quarterback in Mathieu Schneider, and Christian Ehrhoff will be a welcome addition to the line as well. The Canucks now have 5 defenseman that are great puck handlers and will be great on clearing the puck out of their zone and into neutral ice. One area of concern if you are a Canucks fan, what happens if Luongo is hurt again? Raycroft's last few seasons have been very inconsistent, and if counted on to string together a long series of consecutive games, the 'Nucks could slip in the standings.

Calgary: The Flames made their big change behind the bench instead of on the roster this summer, After a couple of disappointing first-round playoff exits with Mike Keenan at the helm, management decided to make a change from his run-and-gun style of play and eventually brought in Brent Sutter, who provides a much more defensively responsible game. Dion Phaneuf will benefit from the style of play, allowing him to recover after a 2008-09 campaign that saw his stats slide. I see two glaring opportunities when I look at Calgary. First, Miikka Kiprusoff. I don't drink the Kool-aid that this guy is still an elite goaltender. Over the last 4 seasons, his save percentage has went swirling. Irregardless, he is still one of the most over-worked netminders in the league and has no reliable backup. I would also be curious how Jay Bouwmeester performs with his new team after departing the Florida Panthers. Bouwmeester is going to be under a lot of scrutiny and pressure to perform to his nice, big contract, especially playing in a Canadian market. I personally think that overall he will overcome the pressure, but you can never be sure until the games are played. Certainly he is no longer in Florida where a victory alone is cause for a celebration. Calgary fans have gone into the last few seasons expecting deep playoff runs, and simply making the playoffs will not appease these fans. Olli Jokinen disappointed last year after being acquired at the trade deadline, but I think a full season on a line with Jarome Iginla will have the red mile singing his praises. Jokinen is also another player who will benefit from Sutter's defensive oriented style of play. Defense is where the Flames stand out; Phaneuf, Bouwmeester, Robyn Regehr and Cory Sarich make up one of the few blue-line groups that would rival that of Nashville.

Edmonton: Are you kidding me? This team went backwards this offseason. The aging Dwayne Roloson played superbly in net last season, but management couldn't come to terms with him for an extension and saw him depart for the Island when free-agency arrived. Seeking a replacement, the Oil picked up Nikolai Khabibulin on a 4-year deal. Fans of teams in the Central division can bear witness to the kind of inconsistent play you'll get from the "Bulin wall" between the pipes. 'Bulin seems only to excel in a contract year. To me, this alone kills their playoff chances. I DO NOT believe Edmonton is going to get the Khabibulin that carried Chicago to the Western Confernce Finals this summer. Edmonton does however have a lot of skill and speed in forwards Ales Hemsky, Andrew Cogliano and Sam Gagner. The problem with these guys is they don't bring any sandpaper to their game. The don't seem inclined to battle along the walls and in the corners for the pucks, and their style of play seems better suited for the Eastern Conference, which is much less physical than that of the Western. One late acquisition made by the Oilers that I really liked was Mike Comrie, who returns to Edmonton and should be able to bring the team around 25 goals this season. Big Dustin Penner is returning to camp much healthier and should be able to finally use his mix of skill and physicality to meet the expectations that come with his lofty paycheck. Simply put, Edmonton's hopes hinge on a ton of "What-if's" coming to fruition, and I think there's no way. Quinn is a great coach, but you can't make orange juice outta lemons.



Minnesota: Only when I started preparing this season preview did I fully realize the amount of changes the Wild undertook this offseason as they try to prepare for a much more up-tempo style of play under new coach Todd Richard's system. But in spite of all these changes, the Wild didn't make any notable improvements. The release of injury-prone Marian Gaborik, only to sign Martin Havlat instead should be cause for concern to the fans of the Christmas-colored Wild. Havlat, like the player he is meant to replace, is made of glass. Playing in the ultra-physical Northwest division, Havlat is going to get banged around a lot. Can his body handle the beating? Minnesota's big advantage is in net: Backstrom is a wizard between the pipes. However, he will have to perform miracles to withstand the onslaught of extra pucks he will face compared to what he is used to. With coach Jacque Lemair leaving for New Jersey, gone is the defensive style of play that limited the quality shots that Backstrom had to turn aside. If you consider their top 4 defense; Brent Burns, Marek Zidlicky, Greg Zanon and Shane Hnidy, all are decent defensemen (excluding Zidlicky,who may as well play forward) but there is no blue-line stud to take ownership and lead by example on the blue line. I believe the Wild will lose a lot of ground out of the gate trying to adopt a new style of play and will not be able to recover, but 2010-11 looks to be a better season.
Colorado: There is no one who has high-hopes for the Avs this year. Colorado continues to rebuild, and the best they can hope for at the end of the season is another high draft pick. Sakic's retirement this summer serves a large blow to this team, losing one of the classiest players to play the game. Craig Anderson is finally getting the opportunity to serve as a number-one netminder and behind a seasoned defense, should perform well. Colorado hasn't had a true number one goalie since Patrick Roy retired, so Anderson will be a very welcome addition in the mile-high city. I am interested to see how the Avalanche will handle highly-touted Matt Duchene, their first-round pick (3rd overall) from the 2009 draft. I personally see no reason to send him down to their AHL affiliate in Lake Erie, instead give him the opportunity to get the experience of NHL games while there are no expectations on the team.

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