Sunday, November 1, 2009

Bounce-back October - My thoughts after the opening month

Having played 13 games this season, the Predators end the month of October with a 6-6-1 record for 13 points. Considering the Predators went on a 6 game losing streak and lost 7 of 8 games, to finish the month at a .500 clip is as much as I could ask for. These results in spite of 10 games having been lost from the top line alone, when Dumont missed 4 games and Arnott is still out after having missed the last 6. While on paper the Preds are still in/around the basement of several stats, the fact of the matter is there is a lot to be optimistic about after these last few games. I may have been a bit over-zealous in my pursuit of a coaching change, but I'm not sure yet. Rightfully so, many of the experts will contine to point to the Preds being tied for last in the league in goals for at 2.08 while averaging 2.85 goals against. However if you'll look at the last 5 games we have played, a different picture is painted. In that time the Preds are 4-1-0, with an average of 2.8 goals for, and a 2.8 goals against. Obviously you want your goals for to be higher than your goals against, but the GAA is trending up while the goals for trending down, and to me it's a good sign. Several areas have shored up considerably for the Predators, the man-advantage is working at a rate that might even convince Brandon Felder to resume calling it a power-play (now sits at 12.5 %, but was as low as 8%), the penalty kill is starting to click, with Smithson having 2 short-handed goals in the last 3 games, Pekka Rinne seems to have finally found his way back to form with 3 strong performances in the last 3 games as he whittles his stats down what we expected from him after his performance last season. Pekka's gotten his GAA down to 2.63 and save percentage to .910. Last season his save percentage was .917, so he could certainly wind up with a much better season on paper than last year. It's in his hands. As it is, his save percentage already has him tied for 16th among his peers this season, and his GAA has him at 15th.

Who would have thought? Patric Hornqvist at this point, has 3 goals, 5 assist in 13 games in this still very young season, as well as being a +5 on a team that has been outscored this season. That would have him on a projected pace of 19 goals and 31 goals if he plays every game this season, with a +31 rating (no one seriously expects that) . Last season, after 28 games, "Horn-dog" was had 2 goals, 5 assists and a -3 rating. Is Horn-dog well on his way to becoming one of our best two-way forwards? Certainly we need it, and what a great story that would be for him after being drafted with the very last pick (230th overall) in the 2005 draft.

The obvious area of concern for the Preds right now, is primary scoring. The secondary is beginning to pick up, but the players that are called upon to score aren't getting it done. Only Dumont has improved has stepped up to ring the bell recently. Erat has been credited with one goal and no assists while being paid $4.5 million. Legwand has performed a lot better the last few games, but still has yet to find the twine and has only 3 assists, while also making $4.5 million. Sullivan scored last night and had 2 assists in Minnie, but has only 5 points overall while having played in all 13 games. This is a player that has played at a point-per-game clip since coming to Nashville from Chicago. The secondary has helped the Preds score enough to win games, but there's no way anyone can logically expect them to continue to carry the play. After all, as much of an asset as Smithson is to the team, no one expects him to get the 19 goals he's on pace for this season.

So what do you think Pred-heads? Have the Preds worked their way out of their funk? Will the Preds continue to stay this competitive for the remainder of the season? Hit up the comments section below.

1 comments:

  1. Well, I don't study the team as much as you do, but I say that if our primary scoring picks up, then we will do fine. It is so weird to see some of the names, like Hornqvist, scoring. We will see...

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